Decision MakingGoal Setting

Thinking in Bets

Annie Duke

Duke, a former professional poker player, argues that most people evaluate past decisions by 'resulting' — judging the choice by whether it worked out rather than whether it was the right bet given what was knowable. That confusion is exactly what keeps people defending an outdated plan. Book 3's Chapter 9 draws on this against sunk-cost defense of an old map, treating a plan as a standing bet to be re-priced as information arrives.