Decision MakingLearning

Superforecasting

Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Tetlock's Good Judgment Project found a group who consistently outperform experts, not through raw intelligence but through habits: breaking big questions into small ones, seeking disconfirming evidence, and updating beliefs in small increments rather than waiting for a dramatic reversal. Book 3's Chapter 9 re-mapping cadence — treat the plan as the best current guess and revise it at every review — draws on this discipline of frequent, incremental updating.